Makale – Page 27 – BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS RESEARCH JOURNAL

Category: Makale

Impact of Forward Looking Disclosures on Stock Prices: Evidence from Borsa İstanbul

Posted on Friday July 26th, 2019Friday July 26th, 2019 by

Article Information

Journal:	Business and Economics Research Journal
Title of Article:	Impact of Forward Looking Disclosures on Stock Prices: Evidence from Borsa İstanbul
Author(s):	Saim Kilic
Volume:	10
Number:	4
Year:	2019
Page:	833-844
ISSN:	2619-9491
DOI Number:	10.20409/berj.2019.204

Abstract

The study examines the impact of disclosures of forward looking statements by companies listed on Borsa İstanbul on stock prices during the period of January 2014 – January 2019. For this purpose, a total of 43 disclosures, 23 of which were positive and 20 of which were negative, were included in the study and analyzed by the Event Study method. According to the results of the study, firstly, it has been found that forward looking disclosures have statistically significant impact on stock returns and investor’s investment decisions. Secondly, when the impact of the positive disclosures and the impact of the negative disclosures were compared; it has been seen that the first impact of the negative disclosures is stronger than the first impact of the positive disclosures, whereas the effect of the negative disclosures lasts shorter than the effect of the positive disclosures. Especially it has been observed that a great majority of the positive disclosures have been effective on the stock prices up to next five transaction days and a great majority of the negative disclosures on the next three transaction days.

Keywords:

Forward Looking Statements, Forward Looking Information, Disclosure, Abnormal Return, Event Study

JEL Classification:

G14, G19

Full Text ( ↓ 2412)

Macroeconomic Fundamentals of Turkey Stock Market Volatility

Posted on Friday July 26th, 2019Friday July 26th, 2019 by

Article Information

Journal:	Business and Economics Research Journal
Title of Article:	Macroeconomic Fundamentals of Turkey Stock Market Volatility
Author(s):	Huseyin Tastan, Arifenur Gungor
Volume:	10
Number:	4
Year:	2019
Page:	823-832
ISSN:	2619-9491
DOI Number:	10.20409/berj.2019.203

Abstract

The aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between the slowly moving long-run component of daily volatility of Turkish stock market and a set of monthly macroeconomic variables. In the first stage, we estimate the long-term volatility of BIST100 index using GARCH-MIDAS (Mixed Data Sampling) method. Subsequently, we examine the relationship between the long-term volatility component and interest rate, USD/TL exchange rate, inflation rate, CDS premium, real sector confidence index and the volatility of S&P500 index using an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. Empirical results suggest that the most significant macroeconomic variable affecting the long-run volatility of BIST100 index is the exchange rate. Also, we show that the long-run volatility of BIST100 index is positively associated with both CDS premium and the volatility of S&P500. Finally, we find that an increase in real sector confidence index leads to a decrease in the long-run component of the BIST100 index volatility.

Keywords:

Stock Market, Volatility, Macroeconomy, MIDAS, ARDL, BIST100

JEL Classification:

C22, C58, G10

Full Text ( ↓ 2515)

Examining the Dynamics of Macroeconomic Indicators and Banking Stock Returns with Bayesian Networks

Posted on Friday July 26th, 2019Friday July 26th, 2019 by

Article Information

Journal:	Business and Economics Research Journal
Title of Article:	Examining the Dynamics of Macroeconomic Indicators and Banking Stock Returns with Bayesian Networks
Author(s):	Fatma Busem Hatipoglu, Umut Uyar
Volume:	10
Number:	4
Year:	2019
Page:	807-822
ISSN:	2619-9491
DOI Number:	10.20409/berj.2019.202

Abstract

According to the modern portfolio theory, the direction of the relationship between the securities in the portfolio is stated to be effective in reducing the risk. Moreover, securities in high correlation are avoided by taking place in the same portfolio. The models structured by the Bayesian networks are capable of visually illustrate the probabilistic relationship. Also, portfolio returns could be refreshed simultaneously when new information has arrived. The study aims to provide dynamic information through Bayesian networks and to investigate the relationship between macroeconomic indicators and stock returns of Turkish major bank stocks based on the Arbitrage Pricing Model. The dataset includes stock returns of four banks listed in the Borsa Istanbul from June 2001 to January 2017. Besides, macroeconomic variables such as BIST-100 Index, oil prices, inflation, exchange, and interest rate & money supply are gathered for the same period. The results suggest that the Bayesian network models allow dynamics among stock returns could be investigated in more detail. Additionally, it determines that macroeconomic variables would have various impacts on stock returns on bank stocks by comparison of the conventional methods.

Keywords:

Arbitrage Pricing Model, Bayesian Networks, Machine Learning, Portfolio Selection Theory, Banking Stocks

JEL Classification:

C11, G11, G12

Full Text ( ↓ 2366)

An Evaluation of the Effects of Turkey’s New Policy Mix on Financial Stability and Price Stability

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Article Information

Journal:	Business and Economics Research Journal
Title of Article:	An Evaluation of the Effects of Turkey’s New Policy Mix on Financial Stability and Price Stability
Author(s):	Ali Ilhan, Metin Ozdemir
Volume:	10
Number:	4
Year:	2019
Page:	789-806
ISSN:	2619-9491
DOI Number:	10.20409/berj.2019.201

Abstract

After the global financial crisis, it has been seen that many emerging markets like Turkey have developed policy frameworks that allow for price stability and financial stability taken together. The CBRT has implemented new policy mix since November 2010, in response to need to respond flexibly to the problems faced by orthodox inflation targeting and the changes in global capital flows. In this study, it is aimed to evaluate the policies implemented under new policy mix. Analyzing the monetary policy and macroprudential policy practices within the framework of new policy mix, it has seen that policies have shown a successful performance in achieving the intermediate targets that determined in line with financial stability. On the other hand, it should be noted that policymakers -to keep single digit interest rates permanent and sustain economic growth- ignored the internal risks of the new policy mix and delayed the steps that required for normalization of monetary policy. However, the use of macroprudential policy for the purpose of economic growth has created policy dilemmas due to an unstable course of economic growth that caused by to the rise in inflation rate and changing the global policy environment. Although the new policy mix has seen to be successful in achieving financial stability, it has to be stated that due to the delay in normalization and the lack of price stability make it a victim of its own success.

Keywords:

Financial Stability, Price Stability, Macroprudential Policy, Monetary Policy, Turkish Economy

JEL Classification:

E52, E58, G18

Full Text ( ↓ 2961)

Analysis of the Causality Relationship between Brent Crude Oil Prices and Energy Import in Turkey Under Structural Breaks

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Article Information

Journal:	Business and Economics Research Journal
Title of Article:	Analysis of the Causality Relationship between Brent Crude Oil Prices and Energy Import in Turkey Under Structural Breaks
Author(s):	Esra N. Kilci
Volume:	10
Number:	4
Year:	2019
Page:	777-788
ISSN:	2619-9491
DOI Number:	10.20409/berj.2019.200

Abstract

Turkey, struggling with the problem of high current account deficit, is an energy dependent country due to lack of oil reserves. Therefore, the changes in energy prices do have impacts on balance of payments through import channel. Considering that energy imports constitutes the biggest share of current account deficit, it is expected that the rise in oil prices will increase the imports upwards. The purpose of this study is to analyze the causality relationship from Brent crude oil prices to energy import by using the monthly data in the period of 2006:08-2018:12. The unit root properties of the series are tested by using Fourier KPSS (2006) unit root test and the causality relationship between the series is investigated by employing Fourier Granger (2016) causality test. Both these tests take into account the impact of multiple structural breaks. The results indicate that there is a causality relationship from Brent crude oil prices to energy import in Turkey in the relevant period.

Keywords:

Crude Oil Prices, Energy Import, Current Account Deficit, Structural Breaks

JEL Classification:

C10, Q41, Q43

Full Text ( ↓ 2591)

The Impact of Government Size on Output Volatility: Evidence from World Economies

Posted on Friday July 26th, 2019Friday July 26th, 2019 by

Article Information

Journal:	Business and Economics Research Journal
Title of Article:	The Impact of Government Size on Output Volatility: Evidence from World Economies
Author(s):	Gamze Oz-Yalaman, Deniz Sevinc, Guven Sevil
Volume:	10
Number:	4
Year:	2019
Page:	761-776
ISSN:	2619-9491
DOI Number:	10.20409/berj.2019.199

Abstract

One of the most important goals of policy-makers is to achieve macroeconomic stability, which could significantly be affected by output volatility. In an effort to provide insights with regard to macroeconomic stability, this study aims to model the volatility of output by using univariate GARCH models and to examine the impact of government size on output volatility by using extensive data set from eight different classifications of world economies for the period between 1960 and 2017. The study also employs the Granger Causality Analysis to determine the direction of this relationship. The results provide strong evidence for a negative relation between government size and output volatility. Output volatility is largely dependent on its own shocks and negatively influenced by outside shock as government size. Moreover, confirming Keynesian Hypothesis, the results show that there is mostly one-way causality from government size to output volatility. The results are robust in terms of different classifications of world economies, different measurements of output volatility, different methodologies and controlling for the effect of different sets of exogenous variables.

Keywords:

Output Volatility, Government Expenditure, Univariate GARCH Model, Granger Causality

JEL Classification:

C01, H5, N10, O47

Full Text ( ↓ 2514)

Complicated Multipolar International Relations System: Russia and China As New Power Centers

Posted on Friday May 10th, 2019Tuesday May 14th, 2019 by

Article Information

Journal:	Business and Economics Research Journal
Title of Article:	Complicated Multipolar International Relations System: Russia and China As New Power Centers
Author(s):	Muhittin Tolga Ozsaglam
Volume:	10
Number:	3(Special Issue)
Year:	2019
Page:	749-776
ISSN:	2619-9491
DOI Number:	10.20409/berj.2019.198

Abstract

This study discusses the nature of the current international relations system and examines the roles and behaviours of the actors within the system. Certainly, the study does not neglect the former studies regarding the nature of the system, and so it contains disciplinary literature review. The methodology of the study is based on combination of quantitative and qualitative methods which evaluates the current system by uniting facts, numbers and arguments-theories. This study focuses on nature of current international relations system by emphasizing on the impacts and relations of the major actors particularly Russia and China. Certainly, other significant actors are not neglected which have close relationship with Russia and China. For instance, Turkey, Iran and members of the BRICS and some African countries are playing crucial roles in current international relations system by improving their ties with Russia and China in economic, political and military spheres. Only sovereign states are not actors in international relations system, international organizations and multinational companies also play crucial roles within international relations system. Therefore, they may create competitive and cooperative atmosphere as dependent on their own interests, which makes the system more complicated. As a result the paper indicates interactions of the various actors and the challenges of the emerging new actors to the USA-Western dominated unipolar system and their involvements in economic, social and political spheres in the world.

Keywords:

Multipolar International Relations System, Russia, China, Africa, Asia

JEL Classification:

D74, Q34, F51

Full Text ( ↓ 3107)

The Mediating Role of Psychological Well-Being and Work Engagement on the Effect of Organization-Based Self-Esteem on Job Performance

Posted on Friday May 10th, 2019Tuesday May 14th, 2019 by

Article Information

Journal:	Business and Economics Research Journal
Title of Article:	The Mediating Role of Psychological Well-Being and Work Engagement on the Effect of Organization-Based Self-Esteem on Job Performance
Author(s):	Ali Acaray
Volume:	10
Number:	3(Special Issue)
Year:	2019
Page:	735-748
ISSN:	2619-9491
DOI Number:	10.20409/berj.2019.197

Abstract

The success of organizations requires employees to perform the desired behavioral outcomes. However, employees’ expected behavioral outcomes depend on many factors. The combination of these factors in an interactional process is an important issue. The purpose of this paper is to examine the mediating role of psychological well-being and work engagement on the effect of organization-based self-esteem on job performance. The sample of the study consisted of 370 employees from various companies such as food, cleaning and cosmetics. The data collected by convenience sampling method was applied to correlation and regression analyzes. The findings of the study revealed that organization-based self-esteem had a positive effect on job performance and psychological well-being and work engagement had a mediating role in this relationship. In addition, there was serial mediating effect of psychological well-being and work engagement on the relationship between organization-based self-esteem and job performance. Based on these findings, suggestions for practical applications were recommended.

Keywords:

Organization-Based Self-Esteem, Job Performance, Psychological Well-Being, Work Engagement

JEL Classification:

M10, M12, M20

Full Text ( ↓ 2461)

Mapping the Effect of Corporate Reputation Perception on the Intention to Buy with Decision Tree

Posted on Friday May 10th, 2019Tuesday May 14th, 2019 by

Article Information

Journal:	Business and Economics Research Journal
Title of Article:	Mapping the Effect of Corporate Reputation Perception on the Intention to Buy with Decision Tree
Author(s):	Basak Gok, Uzeyir Fidan
Volume:	10
Number:	3(Special Issue)
Year:	2019
Page:	723-734
ISSN:	2619-9491
DOI Number:	10.20409/berj.2019.196

Abstract

Businesses are in competition with other businesses in order to survive and achieve success. Reputation, which is a tool for competition in all sectors, affects the future of enterprises. The perception of corporate reputation created by enterprises has an important role in determining the purchasing preferences of customers. In this study, the results of a mistake, made by an international tire manufacturer in marketing and promotion process, were investigated. After the mistake, the perception of the customers about the brand and the effect of this perception on the purchase intention were examined. The research was carried out with the data obtained from the customers who volunteered in the dealers selling the products of this brand. The responses of 397 participants were evaluated at the study. Reputation perception score and re-purchase intention of the customers regarding the brand were investigated by decision tree method from data mining techniques. The intent of buying the customers, according to the status of being aware of faulty advertisement and brand reputation score has been determined. Although products of this brand are preferred in Turkey, Customers are adversely affected from the incorrect advertising films. Predicting customer preferences, maintains its attractiveness and importance. This study is expected to contribute the literature on corporate reputation perception and data mining.

Keywords:

Corporate Reputation, Reputation Management, Data Mining, Decision Trees, Reputation Perception

JEL Classification:

L11, C51, C81

Full Text ( ↓ 2439)

The Effect of Supervisor Integrity on Employees’ Organizational Citizenship Behaviors: The Role of Trust in Supervisor

Posted on Friday May 10th, 2019Tuesday May 14th, 2019 by

Article Information

Journal:	Business and Economics Research Journal
Title of Article:	The Effect of Supervisor Integrity on Employees’ Organizational Citizenship Behaviors: The Role of Trust in Supervisor
Author(s):	Ilksun Didem Ulbegi
Volume:	10
Number:	3(Special Issue)
Year:	2019
Page:	709-722
ISSN:	2619-9491
DOI Number:	10.20409/berj.2019.195

Abstract

The aim of this study is to reveal the direct, indirect, and total effects between the supervisor integrity perceptions of employees, trust in supervisor, and organizational citizenship behaviors. In this respect, the data is collected using a convenience sampling method from 413 banking employees working in Adana. To begin with, the confirmatory factor analysis is conducted in order to examine the validity of the proposed model in the study and showed that the model has a very good model fit. In the study, in order to reveal the reliability of the scales, Cronbach Alpha internal consistency coefficient and composite reliability coefficient are used and identified that the scales used in the study are reliable. Moreover, using correlation analysis the relationships between the variables are revealed statistically significant. Subsequently, structural equation modeling and bootstrapping method are used in order to test the proposed hypotheses in the context of the research model and revealed the direct, indirect, and total effects between the variables. In this regard, the model proposed in the research frame established a very good model fit. Study results revealed that the perceptions about the supervisor integrity have an effect on the employees’ organizational citizenship behaviors in addition to this there is a partial mediation effect of trust in supervisor in this relationship. These study results are discussed in the context of previously conducted studies and theoretical framework.

Keywords:

Supervisor Integrity, Trust in Supervisor, Organizational Citizenship Behavior, Structural Equation Modelling, Mediation Analysis

JEL Classification:

D23, C31, C83

Full Text ( ↓ 2094)