{"id":3262,"date":"2016-03-31T05:27:31","date_gmt":"2016-03-31T02:27:31","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.berjournal.com\/?p=3262"},"modified":"2016-04-01T16:23:58","modified_gmt":"2016-04-01T13:23:58","slug":"urban-water-demand-forecasting-and-comparative-analysis-by-artificial-neural-networks-support-vector-machines-and-box-jenkins-methods","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.berjournal.com\/tr\/urban-water-demand-forecasting-and-comparative-analysis-by-artificial-neural-networks-support-vector-machines-and-box-jenkins-methods","title":{"rendered":"Yapay Sinir A\u011flar\u0131, Destek Vekt\u00f6r Makineleri ve Box-Jenkins Y\u00f6ntemleriyle Kentsel \u0130\u00e7mesuyu Talebi Tahmini ve Kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmal\u0131 Analizi"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Makale Bilgileri<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
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Dergi:<\/td>\nBusiness and Economics Research Journal<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Makalenin Ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131:<\/td>\nYapay Sinir A\u011flar\u0131, Destek Vekt\u00f6r Makineleri ve Box-Jenkins Y\u00f6ntemleriyle Kentsel \u0130\u00e7mesuyu Talebi Tahmini ve Kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmal\u0131 Analizi<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Yazar(lar):<\/td>\nRecep Akda\u011f<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Cilt:<\/td>\n7<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Say\u0131:<\/td>\n1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Y\u0131l:<\/td>\n2016<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Sayfa:<\/td>\n123-138<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
ISSN:<\/td>\n1309-2448<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
DOI Numaras\u0131:<\/td>\n10.20409\/berj.2016116808<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00d6z<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Su talep tahminleri, yat\u0131r\u0131m planlamalar\u0131n\u0131n yap\u0131lmas\u0131nda, su sistemlerinin tasar\u0131m\u0131nda (ar\u0131tma tesisi, depolama, iletim ve da\u011f\u0131t\u0131m hatlar\u0131), mevcut sistemlerin optimal kapasitede i\u015fletilmesinde, i\u015fletme ve yat\u0131r\u0131m maliyetlerinin hesaplanmas\u0131 ve kentsel su y\u00f6netimi politikalar\u0131n\u0131n (fiyatland\u0131rma politikas\u0131, su tasarrufu vb.) belirlenmesi gibi bir\u00e7ok alanda kullan\u0131lmaktad\u0131r. Bu nedenle ger\u00e7e\u011fe yak\u0131n bir su talep tahmininin, su sistemlerinin planlanmas\u0131, tasar\u0131m\u0131, i\u015fletimi ve y\u00f6netiminde anahtar niteli\u011finde oldu\u011fu s\u00f6ylenebilir. Bu \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmada, Diyarbak\u0131r kent merkezi i\u00e7me suyu talebinin Yapay Sinir A\u011flar\u0131 ve zaman serisi analizine dayal\u0131 y\u00f6ntemlerden Winters\u2019in Mevsimsel \u00dcstel D\u00fczeltme ve Box-Jenkins ile tahmin edilmesi ve elde edilen tahminlerin kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 ama\u00e7lanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu ama\u00e7la, \u00f6ncelikle Diyarbak\u0131r kent merkezi su talebini etkileyen de\u011fi\u015fkenlerle ilgili 2003-2013 y\u0131llar\u0131na ait ayl\u0131k veriler toplanarak analiz edilmi\u015ftir. Ard\u0131ndan, bu verilere g\u00f6re Yapay Sinir A\u011flar\u0131, Winters\u2019in Mevsimsel \u00dcstel D\u00fczeltme ve Box-Jenkins y\u00f6ntemleriyle i\u00e7me suyu talep tahmini yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u00dc\u00e7 y\u00f6ntemden elde edilen tahminler, Verimlilik, Ortalama Hata Kareleri, Ortalama Hata Kareleri K\u00f6k\u00fc, Ortalama Mutlak Y\u00fczde Hata \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fctlerine g\u00f6re kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma sonucunda, Yapay Sinir A\u011flar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n t\u00fcm performans \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fctlerinde zaman serisi analizine dayal\u0131 y\u00f6ntemlerinden daha iyi tahmin sonu\u00e7lar\u0131na sahip oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
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Anahtar Kelimeler:<\/td>\nSu Talebi, Talep Tahmini, Yapay Sinir A\u011flar\u0131<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
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JEL S\u0131n\u0131fland\u0131rmas\u0131:<\/td>\nC53, Q21, Q25<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

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Makale Bilgileri Dergi: Business and Economics Research Journal Makalenin Ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131: Yapay Sinir A\u011flar\u0131, Destek Vekt\u00f6r Makineleri ve Box-Jenkins Y\u00f6ntemleriyle Kentsel \u0130\u00e7mesuyu Talebi Tahmini ve Kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmal\u0131 Analizi Yazar(lar): Recep Akda\u011f Cilt: 7 Say\u0131: 1 Y\u0131l: 2016 Sayfa: 123-138 ISSN: 1309-2448 DOI Numaras\u0131: 10.20409\/berj.2016116808 \u00d6z Su talep tahminleri, yat\u0131r\u0131m planlamalar\u0131n\u0131n yap\u0131lmas\u0131nda, su sistemlerinin tasar\u0131m\u0131nda (ar\u0131tma tesisi, depolama, […]<\/p>\n

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