{"id":2792,"date":"2014-08-05T17:10:27","date_gmt":"2014-08-05T14:10:27","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.berjournal.com\/?p=2792"},"modified":"2014-08-05T17:15:16","modified_gmt":"2014-08-05T14:15:16","slug":"turkiye-icin-cikti-acigi-tahmininde-alternatif-yontemler","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.berjournal.com\/tr\/turkiye-icin-cikti-acigi-tahmininde-alternatif-yontemler","title":{"rendered":"T\u00fcrkiye \u0130\u00e7in \u00c7\u0131kt\u0131 A\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 Tahmininde Alternatif Y\u00f6ntemler"},"content":{"rendered":"\n\n\n\n
Makale Bilgileri<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
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Dergi:<\/td>\n\u0130\u015fletme ve Ekonomi Ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar\u0131 Dergisi<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Makalenin Ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131:<\/td>\nT\u00fcrkiye \u0130\u00e7in \u00c7\u0131kt\u0131 A\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 Tahmininde Alternatif Y\u00f6ntemler<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Yazar(lar):<\/td>\nBedriye Sara\u00e7o\u011flu, \u00d6zlem Yi\u011fit, Necmettin Alpay Ko\u00e7ak<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Cilt:<\/td>\n5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Say\u0131:<\/td>\n3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Y\u0131l:<\/td>\n2014<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Sayfa:<\/td>\n43-65<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
ISSN:<\/td>\n1309-2448<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00d6zet<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00c7\u0131kt\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131, \u00fcretimin fiili ve potansiyel seviyeleri aras\u0131ndaki fark olarak tan\u0131mlanmaktad\u0131r. Yaz\u0131nda \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n tahmininde kullan\u0131lan \u00e7e\u015fitli yakla\u015f\u0131mlar bulunmaktad\u0131r. Bu \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmada yaz\u0131ndaki y\u00f6ntemlerin k\u0131s\u0131tlar\u0131n\u0131 da g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulundurarak T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi i\u00e7in alternatif \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 tahminleri elde edilmesi ama\u00e7lanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu ama\u00e7la (1) T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi i\u00e7in Blanchard ve Quah (1989) taraf\u0131ndan \u00f6nerilen Yap\u0131sal VAR (SVAR) modeli, (2) Kaiser ve Maravall (2005) taraf\u0131ndan \u00f6nerilen ARIMA modeline dayal\u0131 \u201cUyarlanm\u0131\u015f Hodrick-Prescott filtresi\u201d (Modified HP) y\u00f6ntemleriyle \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 tahmin edilmi\u015ftir. Bu y\u00f6ntemler yaz\u0131nda en \u00e7ok kullan\u0131lan HP filtresi y\u00f6ntemiyle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u00c7al\u0131\u015fmada \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 tahmininin fiyat istikrar\u0131 politikas\u0131 olu\u015fturulmas\u0131nda \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli bir girdi oldu\u011fu g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulundurularak elde edilen \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 tahminleri, ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen enflasyonu a\u00e7\u0131klama g\u00fc\u00e7leri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Ampirik bulgular\u0131m\u0131z SVAR y\u00f6ntemiyle tahmin edilen \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n cari enflasyonu a\u00e7\u0131klamakta daha ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 sonu\u00e7lar \u00fcretti\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcndedir.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
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Anahtar Kelimeler:<\/td>\n\u00c7\u0131kt\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131, Phillips e\u011frisi, enflasyon \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fc, uyarlanm\u0131\u015f HP filtresi, SVAR<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
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JEL S\u0131n\u0131fland\u0131rmas\u0131:<\/td>\nC32, C36, E31, E32<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

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\r\n \"https:\/\/www.berjournal.com\/tr\/wp-content\/uploads\/icons\/pdf.gif\"\r\n <\/td>\r\n \r\n \r\nTam Metin\r\n<\/b> ( \u2193<\/span> 3642)<\/a> <\/td>\r\n <\/tr>\r\n<\/table><\/p>\n
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Makale Bilgileri Dergi: \u0130\u015fletme ve Ekonomi Ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar\u0131 Dergisi Makalenin Ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131: T\u00fcrkiye \u0130\u00e7in \u00c7\u0131kt\u0131 A\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 Tahmininde Alternatif Y\u00f6ntemler Yazar(lar): Bedriye Sara\u00e7o\u011flu, \u00d6zlem Yi\u011fit, Necmettin Alpay Ko\u00e7ak Cilt: 5 Say\u0131: 3 Y\u0131l: 2014 Sayfa: 43-65 ISSN: 1309-2448 \u00d6zet \u00c7\u0131kt\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131, \u00fcretimin fiili ve potansiyel seviyeleri aras\u0131ndaki fark olarak tan\u0131mlanmaktad\u0131r. Yaz\u0131nda \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n tahmininde kullan\u0131lan \u00e7e\u015fitli yakla\u015f\u0131mlar bulunmaktad\u0131r. […]<\/p>\n

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