{"id":1631,"date":"2011-10-17T08:36:53","date_gmt":"2011-10-17T13:36:53","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.berjournal.com\/?p=1631"},"modified":"2011-10-18T15:48:09","modified_gmt":"2011-10-18T20:48:09","slug":"kalitatif-vab-modelleri-ile-turkiye%e2%80%99de-durgunluklarin-kestirimi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.berjournal.com\/tr\/kalitatif-vab-modelleri-ile-turkiye%e2%80%99de-durgunluklarin-kestirimi","title":{"rendered":"Kalitatif VAB Modelleri ile T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de Durgunluklar\u0131n Kestirimi"},"content":{"rendered":"\n\n<\/colgroup>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Makale Bilgileri<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Dergi: <\/strong><\/span><\/span>\u0130\u015fletme ve Ekonomi Ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar\u0131 Dergisi
\n<\/span>Makalenin Ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131:<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Kalitatif VAB Modelleri ile T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de Durgunluklar\u0131n Kestirimi
\n<\/span>Yazar(lar):<\/strong><\/span><\/span> K. Batu Tunay
\n<\/span>Cilt: <\/strong><\/span><\/span>2
\n<\/span>Say\u0131: <\/strong><\/span><\/span>4
\n<\/span>Y\u0131l: <\/strong><\/span><\/span>2011
\n<\/span>Sayfa:<\/strong><\/span><\/span> 51-72
\n<\/span>ISSN: <\/strong><\/span><\/span>1309-2448<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00d6zet<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\n

Bu \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmada, 1986-2010 d\u00f6nemi verileri kullan\u0131larak T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de durgunluklar\u0131n \u00f6rneklem d\u0131\u015f\u0131 kestirimlerinin yap\u0131lmas\u0131 ama\u00e7lanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Her d\u00fczeydeki karar al\u0131c\u0131lar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, durgunluklar\u0131n kestirilmesi al\u0131nan kararlar\u0131n etkinli\u011fini artt\u0131raca\u011f\u0131ndan \u00f6nemlidir. Kestirim tekni\u011fi olarak, kalitatif ve\/veya kesikli de\u011fi\u015fkenlerden elde edilen bilgiyi vekt\u00f6r ard\u0131\u015f\u0131k ba\u011flan\u0131m (VAB) modeline dahil eden Kalitatif VAB y\u00f6ntemi kullan\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Kalitatif VAB y\u00f6ntemiyle, bilindik VAB modeli \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerinden hareketle durgunluk gibi kalitatif de\u011fi\u015fkenlerin dinamik kestirimleri yap\u0131labilmektedir. Bu y\u00f6ntemle ula\u015f\u0131lan bulgular\u0131n yorumlanmas\u0131 ve de\u011ferlendirilmesi de olduk\u00e7a kolay olmaktad\u0131r. Elde edilen bulgular, gelecek yirmi ayl\u0131k d\u00f6nem boyunca T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de bir durgunluk olay\u0131n\u0131n meydana gelmeyece\u011fini g\u00f6stermektedir. Bununla birlikte, 2014 sonras\u0131 d\u00f6nemde bir durgunlu\u011fa girilmesi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n artaca\u011f\u0131 beklenebilir.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

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Anahtar Kelimeler:<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Durgunluklar, kestirim, Gibbs \u00f6rneklemesi, durum-uzay modelleri, Kalitatif VAB modelleri<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

JEL S\u0131n\u0131fland\u0131rmas\u0131:<\/strong><\/span><\/span> C32, C35, E32, E37<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

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\r\n \"https:\/\/www.berjournal.com\/tr\/wp-content\/uploads\/icons\/pdf.gif\"\r\n <\/td>\r\n \r\n \r\nTam Metin\r\n<\/b> ( \u2193<\/span> 2778)<\/a> <\/td>\r\n <\/tr>\r\n<\/table><\/p>\n
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Makale Bilgileri Dergi: \u0130\u015fletme ve Ekonomi Ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar\u0131 Dergisi Makalenin Ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131: Kalitatif VAB Modelleri ile T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de Durgunluklar\u0131n Kestirimi Yazar(lar): K. Batu Tunay Cilt: 2 Say\u0131: 4 Y\u0131l: 2011 Sayfa: 51-72 ISSN: 1309-2448 \u00d6zet Bu \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmada, 1986-2010 d\u00f6nemi verileri kullan\u0131larak T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de durgunluklar\u0131n \u00f6rneklem d\u0131\u015f\u0131 kestirimlerinin yap\u0131lmas\u0131 ama\u00e7lanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Her d\u00fczeydeki karar al\u0131c\u0131lar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, durgunluklar\u0131n kestirilmesi al\u0131nan kararlar\u0131n etkinli\u011fini […]<\/p>\n

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